Articolo disponibile anche in: Italian
The battle between the Italian government and the various international institutions scrutinising Italian accounts continues. This was foreseen months ago; we all knew it would be a hot autumn, and just not from the point of view of the weather.
As usual when it comes to economic indicators, the country is divided between those who think that the danger is real and those who, behind these alarms, see mere attempts to destabilise our country, both from an economic and political point of view.
The latest alarm has come from Fitch, one of the main ratings agencies, which underlined that it had reasonable grounds for thinking that in Italy the “risk of instability on the financial market will act as the main limitation to the degree of budget expansion”.
As the Minister of Economy, Tria, has underlined, the end of Quantitative Easing, meaning the purchase of massive quantities of government bonds by the ECB, weighs heavily over the situation. Obviously all these measures have an influence not just on Italy’s economy but also on international markets.
Obviously the fear of government crises and current affairs have always had the power to change trends and influence the stock market.
We just need to look at what’s happening on the global market in regard to foreign currencies and forex trading: the fluctuations between the euro and the dollar, for example, is one of the most interesting aspects of this moment of uncertainty on the markets. Needless to say this uncertainty in the global market is not linked to happenings in Italy.
To understand the correlation between current affairs and market trends, we should look at what’s been happening recently on US markets: the dollar is losing ground because of the rumours about the possible intention of President Trump to open a discussion on business issues with Japan.
And while the US awaits employment data from August, the dollar continues its oscillations.
So, returning to our theme, it’s likely that in the next few months Italy will have complicated situations to solve in terms of its economic rating, starting with any difficulties that the current government could face.
The problem will be to understand how much this uncertainty will weigh on the single currency and how, consequently, there will be pressures from outside our country to resolve such problems.